Next month (Nov 30 – Dec 11), the international community will assemble in Paris, France, for the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP21 or CMP 11. This pivotal forum aims to secure a legally-binding and universal agreement on climate action, drawing participation from nations worldwide. The primary objective is to reduce house gas emissions and limit the global temperature increase to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Preceding the conference, countries were tasked with formulating Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) outlining their commitment strategies to achieve these objectives.
Recognizing its susceptibility to climate hazards, especially in sectors like agriculture, energy, tourism, water, and health, Kenya has expressed its dedication to global mitigation efforts. Notable among these challenges are climate-related events such as floods and droughts, contributing to an estimated 3% GDP loss. Despite having relatively low total greenhouse gas emissions, measured at 73 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2eq/yr) in 2010, Kenya acknowledges the importance of emissions from the agricultural, energy, and transport sectors.
Kenya’s commitment entails a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 relative to the Business-As-Usual (BAU) estimate, contingent on both domestic and international support. With an estimated requirement exceeding USD 40 billion for mitigation and adaptation actions across sectors until 2030, the financial aspect is a critical consideration. The country’s INDC also incorporates fairness and ambition elements, questioning historical responsibility and sparking a debate on environmental justice.
While Kenya’s historical contribution to global emissions is low, representing 0.1% of the total, and per-capita emissions are commendably below the global average, economic development aspirations may challenge emission reduction priorities. Balancing the need for cheap energy to foster economic growth with the imperative to reduce emissions is a nuanced concern, exemplified by considerations like potential coal use in the Mui Basin.
Despite this complexity, Kenya stands among the more ambitious countries, notably surpassing its fair share commitment compared to wealthier counterparts. Russia for instance, is not contributing anything towards its fair share. The United States’ INDC represents about 20% of its share while Kenya represents about 160% of its fair share. This discrepancy among nations raises concerns about the collective ability to maintain global temperatures below the critical 2˚Celsius threshold. The looming possibility of a 3˚Celsius or more temperature increase, even if all countries meet their INDC commitments, underscores the importance of the situation, particularly for economically vulnerable nations.
As the Paris talks unfold, the once taboo topic of geoengineering may find a place on the negotiation table as nations grapple with the challenge of meeting emission reduction targets through conventional means.
The realization that climate change affects countries disparately emphasizes the urgency of global collaboration and equitable solutions.
Read more.
Kenya’s INDC – http://www.environment.go.ke/?p=1211
INDC review – https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/fair-shares-civil-society-equity-review-indcs
Paris 2015 – http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en
